跨月价差持续走强,苹果主力看涨10月新合约

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Beginning at the end of May 2019, the main price of the main business of Zheng Shangshang maintained a downward trend. The market is concerned about where the price of apples has fallen. There are more and more investors at the bottom. Today, Apple prices suddenly rose and rose more than 4%. Close to the daily limit, AP1910 contract positions increased by 25,000 hands on the same day, AP1911 and future contract positions increased less, from the perspective of trading analysis of funds intends to push up AP1910 contract, the new year (2019/20) Apple contract.

According to the announcement of the Shaanxi Fruit Industry Center, the early-maturing apples in 2019/20 have entered the order of purchase and sales. In the production area, the number of early-seekers has increased, and Shaanxi has begun to book new products for Qinyang and paper bags. Orders are not priced, and more customers are optimistic about the price of early-ripening apples. On July 4th, the wholesale price of agricultural products 200 index increased by 0.16 from the previous day, which supported the price of apples. In the spot market, in the Zhaoqing fruit wholesale market in Guangdong, there are fewer customers selling apples, mainly in the transit market such as Guangzhou. The sales volume is small but the price is relatively stable. Among them, the price of the previous commodity (box) 80# in Shaanxi Luochuan is 9.8-10 yuan/kg, and the price above 75 # batch is 9.0-9.2 yuan/kg. It is understood that Shaanxi early morning Chenyang, Qingguo 嘎 开始 began to supply, the price is higher than the same period last year, the new year (2019/20) early mature apple prices are expected to open higher mainly due to the high spot price of apples and other alternative fruits this year, However, according to investigations by relevant institutions, it was concluded that the national apple production in 2019/20 increased year-on-year, and the proportion increased or the corresponding reduction in production last year.

Figure 1: China CPI: fresh fruit in the same month (month)

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National Bureau of Statistics, SDIC Anxin Futures

Figure 2: Wholesale average price: Fuji Apple

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Ministry of Agriculture, SDIC Anxin Futures

xx在陕西,最近在生产区供应的富士很难找到。由于清算仓库的基本结束,货物供应主要基于商家的自发市场。早熟的苹果最近只有青果晨阳的交易。预计光阳和沁阳的早期成熟将在下周上市。它将在月底发布。最近,陕西苹果反馈质量存在一定的问题,希望得到相应的关注。在受市场影响的山东,苹果的销量在短期内保持缓慢和持续。山东的早熟苹果上市较晚。在过去两个月中,Apple仍然依赖冷库交易,价格稳定性可能很大。在甘肃,早熟甘肃嘎相对的产量相对有限,上市时间相对较晚。其余的主要是苹果,世界第一和其他苹果。今年的产量很大,本月底在甘肃没有苹果可供出售。

图3:Apple跨月差价:10月至1月

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风,国投安信期货

图4:Apple跨月差价:1月至5月

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在苹果跨月差价中,AP1910-2001价差为379元/吨,较年初增幅超过326%; AP2001-2005价差为42元/吨,较年初下跌74%。根据跨月传播趋势和结构分析,市场10月苹果价格明显看涨,但后期苹果价格略微看跌。与新的一年一致,早熟苹果的价格应该更高,苹果的总产量应该在新的一年。恢复生产对遥远月球的价格产生负面影响。

操作建议:保持AP1910-2001的正面位置。

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